A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
